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A non-chalk 2026 mock draft knowing that the 1st round is half wrong every year
A disclaimer right from the start: This is not what I think will happen in the draft, and it isn't meant to be a hot take for clicks.
2026 Mock Draft Series
5 mocksDraft Thesis
Buy the TE in free agency, draft the premium position.
PickPosPlayer
R123
OTMonroe FreelingGeorgia
Plan for Lane's succession, elite pass-block rateR254
EDGEJoshua JosephsTennessee
34% win rate, best available at premium positionR368
WRJa'Kobi LaneUSC
Creates separation, wins at the catch pointR398
OCLogan JonesIowa
Insurance for Cam's back, elite zone blockerR4122
CBJulian NealArkansas
Solid floor with physicality and tacklingR4136
TETanner KoziolHouston
Not leaving this draft without himR5151
SAFJalon KilgoreSouth Carolina
Versatile safety/nickel flexibilityR6179
QBCole PaytonNorth Dakota State
111 passer rating under pressureDraft Thesis
Bookend tackles, add pass rush, and trade for proven vets.
PickPosPlayer
R123
OTMonroe FreelingGeorgia
Lane's successorR254
EDGEJoshua JosephsTennessee
Explosive pass rusher, 34% win rateR368
OTBrian Parker IIDuke
Tackle depthR398
WREric McAlisterTCU
Production despite off-field questionsR4136
CBDavison IgbinosunOhio State
Day three CB swingR5179
TERiley NowakowskiIndiana
Late round TE depthDraft Thesis
Trade down from 23 to 27 with the 49ers, stack five picks in the top 100.
PickPosPlayer
R127
OTBlake MillerClemson
Trade down from #23 (gained R3-92) for Lane's successorR254
WROmar Cooper Jr.Oklahoma
Playmaker with reliabilityR364
IOLChase BisontisTexas A&M
Interior versatilityR392
CBMalik MuhammadTexas
Acquired pick from trade downR398
TETanner KoziolHouston
Strong all-around prospectR4122
SAFMichael TaaffeTexas
Versatile safetyR4136
EDGEJaishawn BarhamMichigan
Pass rush depthDraft Thesis
Trade up for CB1 and build from there.
PickPosPlayer
R116
CBJermod McCoyTennessee
Trade up from #23 (gave up R3-87) for CB1R255
OTCarter SmithIndiana
Tackle depth for the futureR369
EDGEDerrick MooreMichigan
Pass rush upside in round threeR399
WRAntonio WilliamsClemson
Playmaker with separation abilityDraft Thesis
Build the trenches and add playmakers on day two.
PickPosPlayer
R123
OTFrancis MauigoaMiami (FL)
PFF #21 — anchor the future offensive lineR255
EDGEDerrick MooreMichigan
Pass rush upside on day twoR369
CBJulian NealArkansas
Physical corner with run supportR387
WRAntonio WilliamsClemson
Playmaker with PFF B- gradeR399
OCLogan JonesIowa
Interior depth and insurance for CamRecent Posts
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The Quarterback FactoryHow did the Eagles win a Super Bowl, appear in a conference-leading seven championships games, be victorious in 15 playoff games, and still manage to net 10 draft picks? -
Where the 49ers are Strong, the Eagles are StrongerIt's always interesting digging into the data ahead of a game as you generally don't know where it will take you. -
WagerWire Report: The Eagles Continue Their Historic Rushing and Pass RushWith the game out of hand early, the Eagles ran for 268 yards on 44 carries and 2 TDs. The Eagles totaled 17.02 total EPA rushing against the Giants, the 3rd best rushing game in the entire league thi -
The Eagles Season Not Many Saw ComingI was pretty optimistic heading into the season. -
WagerWire Report: Quarterback Development, Weapons, and What QB-Needy Teams Need to DoJust search Twitter for 'Josh Allen' + your favorite young, underperforming QB and you will find post after post making a case for a repeat of Allen's rise from a college QB that missed the Combine ne -
WagerWire Report: Risers, Fallers, and Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Faith in Mocks Right NowI got into this conversation a few times recently. It started when I wrote the Devon Witherspoon draft profile and said he should be a round 1 corner. At the time, all the simulators had him with an A -
WagerWire Report: Arms Races, Trenches, and Investing in the Cap MocksSo much has been written but I wanted to briefly recognize the Damar Hamlin situation. As a Pitt grad, I've always been a fan of his. We all underestimate the danger in this game and prayers are out t -
WagerWire Draft Profile: Tyree Wilson Is Going to Be a Plague to OffensesLast year Texas Tech told David to watch for Tyree Wilson in 2022. Watching his 2021 film, you saw incredible size and potential, but a raw player. But his improvement in 2022 is staggering. I'll put -
WagerWire Report: Looking Back at Our Top 10 for 2022We want to thank all of you for reading and engaging throughout the year - we are both incredibly honored to be able to do this with the best fan base in the world. To wrap 2022, here are our top 10 a -
WagerWire Report: Thoughts on the 2023 Draft First RoundI am nowhere near done looking at prospects and there is a ton of time before the draft, but a few things look pretty clear so far. And one is that defensive line is going to be a priority for a lot o -
WagerWire Draft Profile: Georgia Safety Chris Smith IIThe Eagles double-dipped at UGA in the 2022 draft and if they end up in the market for a safety in 2023, they should look there again. -
WagerWire Report: Reflecting on Jalen Hurts, He's Just DifferentThe Eagles are up 21–0 over the Tennessee Titans, the entire sideline is celebrating, laughing, and chopping it up. Well, everyone except Jalen Hurts. He’s by himself, staring at the field, focused. -
WagerWire Report: Extraordinary Things to see while enjoying an Eagles-winning weekend in DallasAs cliche as it may seem, your first must-see stop should be the 6th Floor Museum. From there, continue on a mini JFK tour. -
WagerWire Report: Rushing Has Made a Comeback, and the Eagles are Even Better at it Than You ThinkI love analytics but a lot of the community has long brought out their EPA per play stats to proclaim that rushing is dead, long live the always-superior pass game. -
WagerWire Report: Playing Against a Clutch Quarterback 'Hurts'Sunday: 'It's 4th-and-1 late in the first half and the Giants are back to punt... Gillan lofts the ball... Covey is under it and waves for the fair catch at the Eagles own 16... with a minute twenty-t -
WagerWire Report: Introducing The Eagles Prime Time Sensation, Defensive Back Reed BlankenshipOn Monday night, Reed Blankenship had the daunting task of coming into the game and playing safety for injured Eagles standout C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Reed intercepted the first pass ever targeted at hi -
WagerWire Report: It's Now a Mobile Quarterback League - A Look at Valuing MobilityWhile it is apparent that mobile quarterbacks are rapidly changing the game, there is still such polarizing conversations around the position. We in Philly see it constantly with Jalen Hurts: 'he leav -
WagerWire Report: The Eagles Have the Best Record In the NFL and an Embarrassment of Riches to Add More TalentThe Eagles have overhauled their roster from one of the oldest to one with an exciting group of talented young players. Most of these players are under contract for 2 or more seasons. -
WagerWire Report: Big Backs, Pass Defense, and Deep Passing - Why the Eagles Matchup Well Against TennesseA lot of Eagles fans have looked ahead at the Titans game as a concern, especially because of the run game on both sides of the ball. But I am way more bullish on this game than most. - How to respond to your boomer grandparents, aunts, and uncles when they complain about “young people nowadays”, “handouts”, and “how they made it on their own”: An Economic LessonCollege costs have grown 2.7 times as fast as incomes (and for low-income students, it is even worse)
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WagerWire Report: Devon Witherspoon is player the Eagles should target if they're looking for a CB in the 2023 NFL DraftDevon Witherspoon fits what the Eagles look for in corners and will realistically be available with where they could prioritize a corner in this upcoming class. -
Draft Profile: If the Eagles Want a CB in 2023, Devon Witherspoon is Who They Should TargetDevon Witherspoon fits what the Eagles look for in corners and will realistically be available with where they could prioritize a corner in this upcoming class. -
WagerWire Report: The Eagles A.J. Brown is unapologetically who he and YOU need him to beSome athletes who come to Philadelphia have found it to be a difficult transition, whereas others have fit like a glove from day one. -
WagerWire Report: 17 Prospects, the Eagles Draft Needs, and an Early 2023 Draft BoardAt a projected $225M salary cap in 2023, the Eagles are 14th in effective cap space with just over $8M free. -
WagerWire Report: Dameon Pierce Was One of Last Year's 'Elusiveness' Standouts - Which 2023 RBs Stand Out?The Eagles are coming off their 8th straight win but in that game, we all saw what Houston's rookie back Dameon Pierce could do. On his way to 139 yards and a 5.1 per rush average, Pierce was the Texa -
WagerWire Report: We Are Either Living Through a Punting Renaissance in the NFL or We Have a Juiced BallIf you have been here before, you know I wrote a ton about punters last year. All the talk of the now-fallen punt god overshadowed that last year’s rookie punter class was going to be one the best pun -
WagerWire Report: We Are Either Living Through a Punting Renaissance or We Have a Juiced BallIf you have been here before, you know I wrote a ton about punters last year. All the talk of the now-fallen punt god overshadowed that last year's rookie punter class was going to be one the best pun -
WagerWire Report: A Look at Draft Pick Value - Should We Care About the Lack of Day 3 Picks?With Howie clearing out the Eagles' 2023 day three picks in the trades for C.J. Gardner-Johnson (5th and 6th rounders) and Robert Quinn (4th rounder), the Eagles are left with six picks, of which four -
WagerWire Report: Eagles Free Agents-Who Stays, Who Goes?For the first time in many seasons in Philadelphia, the top priority in free agency might be to resign their own. -
WagerWire Report: Time to Throw, the Pass Rush, and Jalen's EfficiencyNow that we are over a third of the way through the season, we have enough data to look at a few of the key things I cared about this season for the Eagles. -
WagerWire Report: Brandon Graham, If This Is GoodbyeOnce called a bust, the Eagles’ defensive end, Brandon Graham, is about to make, arguably, the most important play in Eagle's history during the Super Bowl era. -
The Truth About Eagles FansFor all of the negativity that surrounds the city of Philadelphia’s fanbase (focused on Eagles fans in particular) from national sports reporters and TV pundits, I decided to research the facts and fi -
Turnovers and Which Teams May Be Headed for Defensive Regression in 2022While this is an Eagles site, I was looking into the Cowboys prior to the season as part of the AV-based win prediction modeling I do. Last year I was wrong on the Cowboys, having them modeled at 7.4 -
The Eagles, A New BeginningWhen time ran out in the NFL wild-card game vs the Buccaneers, along with their season, Jalen Hurts, Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, and the rest of the Philadelphia Eagles walked into the visitor's locke -
The 2022 Eagles: An 11 Win Season, the NFC East, and What I'll Be WatchingIn my last post here, I looked back at what I got right and wrong with the 2021 Eagles. I felt strongly on the Eagles beating their preseason win projection and had their record right at 9 wins. Last -
The Day After; Philadelphia Eagles 2022 Initial 53-Man Roster, Youth MovementThe Eagles have overhauled their roster from one of the oldest in the league to one with an exciting group of talented young players. Most of these players are under contract for 2 or more seasons. -
How Much Better Can Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith Be?When DeVonta Smith was wreaking havoc on opposing defenses during his time at Alabama he was utilized in a variety of formations and in motion to great success. During his rookie season in Philadelphi -
What I Got Right and Wrong Last Year and a Peak at Another 'Over' for 2022It's been a busy summer and I haven't written in a little while. We moved again after moving 2 years ago, some of our friends are starting to think we are in the Witness Protection Program. Covid fina -
Eagles WR AJ Brown, Brotherly Love Has Always Been at His CoreSome athletes who come to Philadelphia have found it to be a difficult transition, whereas others have fit like a glove from day one. -
The Philadelphia Eagles Have an Impressive Young CoreThe Eagles have overhauled their roster from one of the oldest to one with an exciting group of talented young players. Most of these players are under contract for 2 or more seasons. -
5 Philadelphia Eagles To Procure On Your Fantasy RostersThe NFL season is always a grind and having healthy players goes a long way to winning that coveted title in fantasy, as it does in real life. Having players providing a value higher than their averag -
Top 10 Undrafted Free Agents in Eagles HistoryTo say the Eagles have had success signing UDFA would be an understamentet. The following list includes the all-time points leader in franchise history, a player who had a major motion picture made ab -
The Eagle's New Alpha, WR AJ Brown“You can describe me like a 70 Chevelle, old school. I’m one of the guys that, I’m a big guy, fast guy, explosive, you know, hard to bring down” -
Philadelphia Eagles Pre-Season 53 Man Roster ProjectionQB-3 -
The Butterfly Effect; How Losing to Washington & Trading Wentz Reshaped The EaglesButterfly Effect- The idea that small changes may have large effects. A phenomenon whereby a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. -
The Safety Position Is Increasing In Value (and How Should We Feel About the Eagles?)Earlier in the offseason I looked at the trends in positional value in the post 'Positional Value, Free Agency, and the Draft' and wanted to dig into safety a bit more as the position is rising in imp - 10 Foretellings The Crystal Ball Has Revealed For The Eagles 2022 SeasonA.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will become the first 1000 yard duo in team history.
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The Rise of Roseman, the Incredible Story of How Howie Roseman Became the Most Powerful Man in Philadelphia SportsThe rise of Roseman is a fascinating tale. Whether fans like him or not, Howie Roseman’s name has become synonymous with the Philadelphia Eagles, and his story is one of the more unique in NFL history -
Are Jordan Davis and Nose Tackles a New Premium Position?When the Eagles drafted Jordan Davis, there were more people dismissing the pick than I expected, citing the lack of positional value of a non-pass rusher (and one that people think will only be on th -
My Prioritized Eagles Draft BoardThis is mostly a post for myself to look back on after the draft, see what I was right and wrong on, and what I need to adjust to next year. I created a horizontal draft board with probably 100-120 pl -
Pre Draft Look Inside the Mind of Eagles G.M. Howie Roseman, The Anatomy of a TradeEarlier this offseason I opined that Howie seemingly likes to make trades regarding picks in the first round of the NFL draft, a month in advance. Last year with the Dolphins and again this season wit -
Eagles Draft History: 2002, The Best Draft, and Doubling UpStatistically, the Eagles best draft over the past twenty years was the 2002 draft where they selected: -
Lewis Cine: A Remarkable Journey From Haiti to America, and the NFLGeorgia safety standout Lewis Cine can do everything! -
What Should the 24-Year Olds Expect in the Draft?With the additional Covid redshirt years, this year's draft is one of the largest drafts and has the highest number of older prospects - by my best count, there are 87 players in the draft that will b -
The Final Absolute Superlative All Eagles 2022 NFL Mock DraftRound 1 (pick 10): Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia - 2022 Mock: What Would I Do?Horizontal Draft Board
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The Great QB DebateThere are two very divisive differences of opinion when discussing which way a team should proceed regarding the Quarterback position. -
Gods, Lions, and National Champions: In the Year of the Punter, Jordan Stout Stands AboveThe 2022 draft is widely expected to be a deep class for pass rushers, corners, and wide receivers but it may turn out to be one of the best punter classes in a long time. San Diego State's Matt Araiz -
Eagles Draft History: The Best Individual Performance of a Draft PickWhen you look at the best individual performances of Eagles draft picks, there are several that stand out: -
2022 Top 75 NFL Draft Prospects, The Big Board1. Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame 2. Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE Michigan 3. Travon Walker, EDGE Georgia 4. Ikem Ekwonu, OT NC State 5. Evan Neal, OT Alabama 6. Charles Cross, OT Mississippi State 7. Ahmad Ga -
Eagles Draft History: Making Sense of Howie's DraftsHowie is pretty open on how he prioritizes positions but despite that, many still get frustrated when drafts don't follow our mocks with linebackers going in the 1st. Here I look back at which positio -
The Extraordinarily Versatile Erik Ezukanma, NFL Draft ProfileIf your team is in need of a wide receiver, and you like YAC (yards after catch). You are going to love Chukwuerika “Erik” Ezukanma! -
Eagles Draft History: The Best Draft Values Since 2000While there is a lot of focus on the missed 1st round picks recently, the Eagles have had a lot of great picks later in the draft. Here is a look at the best value draft picks by the Eagles since 2000 -
Introducing Our 2022 NFL Sensationally Sardonic (Mock) DraftWe (David and Greg) decided to do a dueling mock draft. Picks were randomly assigned so you will see each of us having small runs and we decided on no trades although did debate one or two. I have to -
Potential Surprising Eagles Draft Picks That Should Not Surprise UsI started this article before the Barnett re-signing which may be putting Philly fully over the edge (no pun intended) on the offseason. This article may have some more relevance now though as it is s -
The Enigma, Philadelphia Eagles WR Jalen ReagorIt has been 2 long seasons, and I hate calling any 23 year old player a bust after a couple years, but 88 catches, 929 yards and a measly 4 touchdowns in two years are pretty anemic numbers. After the -
Top Eagles Free Agent WR Targets: What the Data SaysJust a quick post on some remaining free agent wide receiver targets for the Eagles as I was looking at some of the deeper data on the top names being thrown around. -
Positional Value, Free Agency, and the DraftThe free agency period raises 90% of my annoyances with football. No matter how much history shows playing in the mid-range of the free agent market has the best outcomes and that the high-end, especi -
In and Out On Jalen HurtsA little over 16 months ago, Nov 17, 2020. Jalen Hurts shocked the New Orleans Saints in his first NFL start, by leading the Philadelphia Eagles to a 24–21 win. -
Our Consensus Mocks Are Always Wrong. And What a Howie Draft Could Look LikeIt is almost impossible right now to find an Eagles mock that doesn't include the same players. One of the EDGEs - Jermaine Johnson, Travon Walker, David Ojabo, and George Karlaftis... a corner like A -
5 Mid To Late Round Players That Could Turn The Eagles Into ContendersBelow are the luxury picks, the WANTS. The Eagles may not need all of them right away, but they’re players that can elevate a good roster to a great one. -
A Look at the Eagles at the Start of Free Agency and What History Tells UsIt's that time of year where all the free agency wishlist chatter on Eagles Twitter reads like a kid's Christmas list - Marcus Williams and Allen Robinson and Chandler Jones and Bobby Wagner. But hist -
What's the Value of a Good Punt? (And Some More Jordan Stout)How good punts impact scoring -
5 Players The Philadelphia Eagles Need To DraftThe chances that the Eagles use all 3 of their first round picks would seem to be slim to none. Howie even eluded to that during the combine when he stated he didn’t NEED to use them all. That sounded -
Zimbalist Williams Has A Dream“Life ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward!” ~ Rocky -
Trading Down: History of Trades and Who May Want to Trade Up With the EaglesNot sure there is anybody, including Howie, that believes Howie will make all three picks in the 1st round this year. Many want to grab a 2023 1st to give the Eagles QB options after this year which m -
“Doctor” Strange Is A Marvel - The Evolution of Football Super Hero, Cole StrangeWatch out Marvel, “Doctor” Cole Strange doesn’t need sorcery to dominate mankind, he uses brute strength to impose his will upon opponents that dare to come in his path. His mission, to take over the -
What I Learned Looking Back On My 2021 NFL Eagles Mock DraftWhen I revisited the 2021 draft for this article there were two things I learned that I hope to remember AND utilize before I finalize my 2022 mock in April. -
Offseason Assumptions, a Mock, and What Howie May Look ForJust a quick final Eagles mock draft prior to the start of the NFL Combine this week and what I want to see from each of the picks. -
Running Backs: Elusiveness, Explosiveness, and Potential Day 3 GemsFirst, an article on punters and now running backs - the two positions the analytics community hates most. I'm definitely not part of the 'running backs don't matter' crowd and with the Eagles truly c -
A Look at the Eagles Pass Rush and Offseason PrioritiesLet me put this out right at the beginning - what I am about to write is not a 'the Eagles pass rush is great' article. That argument was going on last week and I do not want to anger Seth... But when -
2022 NFL Eagles Mock Draft and FA TargetsPre Combine, Post Senior Bowl, Eagles Only Mock with 2 Free Agents -
Cole Strange Appreciates Aggression and Toughness, you will appreciate himCole Strange is rising up draft boards after his performance during Senior Bowl week, and with good reason. The style of play and attitude he brings to the field are traits all NFL teams covet on thei -
Drafting a Punter Makes Analytical Sense... And Yes, This Year There is a Punt GodThe Eagles should draft a punter in 2022. And no, it shouldn't be Matt Araiza... the punter to take this year is the real Punt God, Penn State's Jordan Stout. -
Punt God, Midnight Oil, 80’s Music, and Prospects Close To Your HeartFrom singing Midnight Oil to watching film breakdown on a “Punt God”, it’s been a busy start to the offseason. -
2022 Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent Wish ListThe Eagles are heading into the 2022 NFL Draft loaded with ten picks, including 3 first rounders for the first time in franchise history. Even with that embarrassment of riches, every hole on the rost -
State of the Philadelphia Eagles, Off Season 2022Who is on the roster, who will be, and the projected player allocation for each position. -
With 3 First Round Picks, the 2022 NFL Draft Takes CenterstageAfter the brutal way the Eagles were bounced from the playoffs, and the poor play from QB Jalen Hurts, fans will cry for a QB this offseason. I do not believe this to be an option. Philadelphia Eagles -
Immediate Post-Season Thoughts on the EaglesIt's been a bit since I have written, primarily because life got really busy and partly because I didn't have much to write. I felt like everybody (including me) was just continually writing and overr -
Tay Gowan's Unique Journey to the Philadelphia EaglesTay Gowan has had a whirlwind of a year. It started off in April anxiously awaiting the 2021 NFL Draft. Then he was selected by the Arizona Cardinals. Six months later Gowan was dealt to the Philadelp -
Oscar Smith Tigers Roar Their Way To Win 2 State Titles In One Calendar YearThe Oscar Smith Tigers football program did something no team in VHSL (Virginia High School League) history had ever done. Win two Virginia State football championship titles in the same calendar year -
Thank You All For Your SupportI wanted to thank each and every one of you who have read the stories, interacted on twitter, retweeted, shared and commented this year. Greg and I started this website to offer, what we hoped would b -
The Unquantifiable Quez, An Origin StoryThere aren’t charts, metrics, or game tapes that can measure a persons drive or their passion to succeed. You may say that determining ones desire is unquantifiable. -
Always Smiling and Having Fun, Big Play Slay is a VibeDuring the spring when Slay first met with the new coaching staff, he expressed his desire to be the guy, to be the number one cornerback. Slay, never one to shy away from competition, wanted to trave -
Cartwheels, Black Belts, Poets, and Overalls, Meet the eccentric and humble Landon DickersonWhen Landon Dickerson was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL draft, a lot of fans bemoaned the fact the Eagles were taking “another injury guy”. Twelve weeks into the season, and dominating on t -
I Try Not to Write Frustration Posts But...I avoid the week-to-week swings and usually find myself being neither as high as Eagles Twitter is after a win nor as low as it is after a loss like yesterday. Any single game in any single week in th -
A Promising, Auspicious Young Core?All of these players are locked in, at least through the 2022 season. -
Big Play, Don't Call Him Darius, SlayAnother week, another electrifying defensive performance from Big Play Slay. With his 51 yard pick 6, he became the first defensive player with TD's in back to back weeks for the Eagles since Sheldon -
Howie, He’s a Complicated Man no one Understands, but LurieDamn right. -
What Does the Data Say on Run / Pass Balance?This is an analysis I have been thinking about for a while and even more recently with the debate on the Eagles run / pass balance. Usually I have an idea where an analysis will land, but going into t -
Eagles 2022 Early Draft Need Preview, With Potential First RoundersI would like to preface this by saying, I can't imagine the Eagles will actually use three first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. I would imagine they deal one (or more) away to a QB needy team to g -
Grouping QB Accuracy By CPOE - Who Does Hurts Look Like?As a follow-up to my recent post 'Hurts May Be What He Is… What Historical Data Shows on QB Development' where I compared Hurts' accuracy numbers to past QB averages, I wanted to also look at Hurts vs -
Hurts May Be What He Is... What Historical Data Shows on QB DevelopmentAs Yogi Berra said, 'it's getting late early' and if past data on QB development holds, it may be doing just that for Hurts... -
Jason Kelce Has Me Thinking About a Lot Right NowKelce is the not only the conscience of the Eagles, he really is the conscience of Philly sports. Thursday in his press conference he spoke about what it takes and means to play in Philly. My favorite -
Spellbinding and Mind Blowing Signature Plays, Quarterbacks EditionRandall Cunningham: -
Reminiscing, the 2021 Draft. What Went Right and Wrong?UPDATED 10/17/21, BELOW IS ORIGINAL STORY FROM APRIL 2021 -
Where Is Hurts In His Development?Data shows that around this is the time of the season where a team's performance starts stabilizing and they are what they are so I have been thinking a lot about some of my beliefs leading up to seas -
Daring and Driven, Gainwell Does it All for FamilyKenneth Gainwell has always put family first. His family means everything to him. He doesn’t just say it, he backs it up with his actions, he lives it. When Kenneth played every down with everything h -
What is Wrong (and Right) With the Eagles DefenseI didn't post last week after the Cowboys game because I don't want to be over-reactionary on a bad game (and because I also had a few vacation days away). There is so much justified focus on the Eagl -
5 Statistics Before the Eagles / Cowboys Week 3 GameJust a quick post ahead of the Eagles-Cowboys Monday Night game. I had the Eagles modeled as a slightly better team than the Cowboys this year and I still believe the Eagles roster is more balanced. B -
Jalen Hurts and the Deep BallA lot has been made this past week of Jalen Hurts' ability to throw the deep ball with questions on both his arm strength and accuracy. He had a couple of deep passes to DeVonta Smith in the SF game t -
A Re-Look at What Landon Dickerson Brings Us (and an Update After Week 2)Adding an update to a post from the end of preseason on what Landon Dickerson brings to the Eagles. Since he is now starting with Brandon Brooks' injury, I wanted to update with some week 2 data. -
What Went Wrong Against San Francisco and a Frustration-Induced Look at Draft NeedsWarning: This post will cover a lot of ground, probably should be two posts, and is probably a written-too-close-to-the-end-of-the-game frustration-fueled post. -
Thoughts on the Eagles / 49ers GameBefore the season, I had the 49ers modeled as a slightly better team than the Eagles based on expected aggregate team value. San Francisco was a bad team in 2020 but like Philly, it is important to lo -
10 College Corners to Follow This 2021 SeasonYouTube is a beautiful thing. I watched the footage I could find on the corners listed below, and when available read and chatted with scouts who follow the teams and players. -
Some Stats on a Very Good Opener in AtlantaOverall stats: Looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) which measures every play with the value of the play above or below what is expected given down, distance, and field position. The Eagles were : -
A Look at the Opener from an Eagles Fan In Falcon CountryMost probably don't know but I am a transplanted Philly guy now in Atlanta which I love. But there really isn't a 'Falcon Country'... on the eve of the season starting, the biggest sports story here i -
Way Too Early Eagles 2022 Mock DraftWith the start of college football and before I get my Christmas decorations out (joke), I took a quick look at some players that should interest the Eagles. This post builds on a few prior posts: -
2021 Win Predictions - AFCLast week I posted my NFC win predictions using cumulative team value (AV), which has a strong correlation to win percentage. Now here is the AFC. -
2021 Fantasy Football, Philadelphia Eagles VersionQB Jalen Hurts -
2021 Win Projections - NFCI previously wrote an article on the relationship of aggregate team player value and win totals and using team value to forecast win totals. It is a more analytical post but if you are interested in t -
Don't Sweat It, The Tenacity & Evolution of JoshThe one thing we all know that makes a cornerbacks life easier is a good pass rush. The Eagles have had a good to very good D line for years, and Josh Sweat is here to make sure that tradition continu -
Eagles Training Camp Review in PicsGoing from QB2 -
And How Are Our Other Round 2 Targets Doing?Last week I looked back at the Eagles' top round 1 draft targets to see how each was doing in preseason. This week, I'll look at our favorites and often-mocked players at pick 37. I think a lot of Phi -
Homeless, Covid, NFL Cornerback, The Tay Gowan You Need To KnowFor every athlete that has ever dreamed of making it to the NFL, the following words are the ones that change their lives forever. -
Projecting Win Totals Using Team Approximate Value (AV) MetricsThis will be a more analytics focused post, although it is the basis for a prior post on why I think the Eagles will exceed their 2021 line of 6.5 wins (https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/07/why-the-2 -
What I'm Watching for in the Patriots / Eagles Preseason GameBefore last week's first preseason game against the Steelers, I listed 5 things I was watching for: -
How Are Our Other Round 1 Targets Doing?DeVonta Smith is one of the most universally loved 1st round picks by the Eagles as it fills a big need and there is nothing he doesn't do well - he had twice as many YAC in college as the next closes -
What I'm Watching for in Tonight's Eagles-Steelers Preseason GameFinally, a preseason game is tonight but it is just preseason. But there are meaningful things to look for. This is just a quick post on what I think are the five most important things (in order of im -
The Good, the Bad, and the SurprisingGood- Josh Sweat, might be the best player in camp, has totally dominated the O line. -
What's Important From Training Camp Week 2Like last week, I'll avoid the same updates we have all seen from reporters online as nobody needs another recap and instead try to focus on what matters for the Eagles season with a handful of quick -
Rewatching All of Jalen Reagor's 2020 TargetsI was not planning on doing an article specifically on Jalen Reagor but a couple of things this week changed my mind. In prior posts and on Twitter I've been high on Reagor because of his traits. This -
HOF WR Harold Carmichael, The Wait Is Finally OverThe Eagles all time leader in pass receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and total touchdowns, despite the league now being a much more pass heavy offense than in his day, will finally be -
Let's Talk About Tyree Jackson...Finally getting into the NFL Hall of Fame, Harold Carmichael was one of the original mismatch nightmares in the NFL. At 6’10”, he still is the tallest wide receiver to play in the league. More than ju -
Is Slot the Right Position for Avonte?During his rookie season, when asked which position he plays, Avonte corrected a reporter and said he is a DB, not a corner or safety. That year, he played significant snaps at corner, slot, and safet -
53 Man Roster, Training Camp EditionAug 1, 2021 -
MLB Player, Patrick MahomesIn the 37th round of the 2014 MLB amateur draft the Detroit Tigers select…Patrick Mahomes. -
What's Important From Training Camp Week 1Everybody has seen the notes from the first few days of camp and I'm not writing the same post. What I am doing here is grabbing points that I think are most relevant for the season and future of the -
The Carson Wentz Era is OverWith a possible surgery looming, and a likelihood of not playing the required snaps to give the Eagles the desired first round pick (now a second), maybe fans can finally move on. There would be no re -
Quez Watkins, The Forgotten Weapon, Don’t Be A Fan LaterMost of the offseason has been spent fantasizing about the potential of DeVonta Smith, rightly so, or lamenting the fact that the Eagles didn’t draft or trade for an elite CB. (I had to at least menti -
Quick Thoughts on New Eagle Steven NelsonThere is absolutely nothing to dislike about the Eagles signing free agent corner Steven Nelson because the corner two spot was going to be a battle between Avonte (who has proven over and over again -
Why the 2021 Eagles Will Beat Their 6.5 Win Projection9/3/21 Update: I just released my full NFC win predictions and in that post, the Eagles are at 8.9 wins vs. 9.7 wins below. The difference is almost totally due to a change in the Eagles 2021 strength -
Former Philadelphia Eagles CB Mark 'Mighty Mouse' McMillianNFL player, Emmy Award winner, outreach program founder, and a Master Griller. Quite the resume’. Mark McMillian had just begun making his impact on the world when he started his Pro career in the cit -
The Eagles Offensive Line 2021 OutlookFirst, I want to give credits to two sources for this article (and generally great resources all around): -
Zech McPhearson Might be the CB Fans Have Been Asking ForSaturday May 1, 2021 12:00 PM Cleveland Ohio: As the picks were being made during the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Howie Roseman anxiously watched each one from inside the Eagles “war room -
The Eagles Top 12 Corners Since 1980The recent history of the Philadelphia Eagles cornerback situation has not been one worth ranking, nor watching. Outside of the magical 2017 season, the backfield has been a mess. The Eagles have not -
What Can We Expect Jalen Hurts to Be in 2021?By far, the number one question for the 2021 Eagles is what will Hurts be? Not only is this important to their season, but maybe more importantly long-term, it will dictate whether the Eagles need to -
The Best Metrics to Watch That Drive Player Value - DefenseLast time I ran through offensive metrics (link here) that matter and now I will hit the defense. Defense is a lot harder to simplify as there are fewer true individual metrics and a player's impact o -
The Best Metrics to Watch That Drive Player Value - OffenseI'm procrastinating finishing the Eagles draft history analysis because the last two positions to do are tight end and running back and both are pretty uninteresting positions to look at (mostly becau -
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: Wide ReceiversI had two big issues getting to this analysis: -
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: LinebackersLooking at the Eagle's linebacker draft philosophy may be the most interesting one I have done so far as I personally started off biased towards Howie's view of under-prioritizing linebackers. Most te -
2020 Offensive Line Grades - Win Rate vs. PFFIf you don't follow Brad Congelio, PhD and Professor of Sports Analytics at Kutztown University (@BradCongelio), you should - lot of great sports analytics. A tweet of his got me thinking on different - Test PageDefense & Fumbles Table | | | | | | Games | | Def Interceptions | | | | | Fumbles | | | | | | Tackles | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
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Automating Scraping of NFL Team Data With PythonCredit to Steven Morse (@thestevemo or his blog at https://stmorse.github.io/index.html) who had code I used as a basis for my ProFootballReference scraping scripts. He is a good follow for math and a -
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: 'The QB Factory'Yes, the factory... I already wrote on cornerbacks and both the OL and DL, and wasn't looking forward to analyzing and writing on the quarterbacks for several reasons. But first, yes, the Eagles do in -
What Can We Expect from Jonathan Gannon on the Eagles Secondary?Yesterday Jonathan Gannon was exactly what Eagles fans have wanted in his press conference as he spoke consistently about using players to their strengths and not forcing a scheme. -
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: The Trenches Part 2 - OLI covered the defensive line in the last post here, which the Eagles invest more in than the majority of the league and have also drafted very well with their top picks. On the offensive line, the sto -
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: The Trenches Part 1 - DLHere is the second article (the first was on cornerback) analyzing the Eagles draft philosophy and what is right or wrong based on historical data. -
The Analytics of the Eagles Draft Philosophy Series: CBI’ve been looking at the Eagles draft history and going to have a couple of posts on their draft philosophy and where they are right or wrong. CB, of course, is first. -
DeVonta Smith Will Hit the “Over” on EverythingFirst a disclaimer — this is not betting advice and I never bet on sports (or bet or gamble on anything actually). I have had way too much statistics in my life to go against lines set using large pop -
Why the Data Supports Optimism on the Eagles 2021 DraftMuch has been written of the Eagles poor drafting over the past decade which made the 2021 draft critical to restocking an old and depleted roster. This draft is widely viewed as one where Howie and t -
An Eagles 2021 Draft Board and Post-Draft AnalysisHere is my shot at an Eagles 2021 draft board - few points to clarify the spreadsheet layout: -
My No-Trade, Needs-Based, Data-Backed Eagles 2021 Draft StrategyI previously wrote a post on why the Eagles should take a cornerback in the first round over a wide receiver based on (1) the Eagles dire need for CBs and (2) the historical value of each position and -
Why The Eagles Should Take A Cornerback In Round 1It’s hard to find an Eagles 2021 mock draft that does not have them taking Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, or one of the QBs with their 6th pick in the 2021 draft. Very, very -
Creating an Analytic Data Set of NFL Player ValueProFootball Reference's Approximate Value (AV) is a great NFL analytics measure of player value, created by PFR’s founder Doug Drinen. AV, similar to baseball’s WAR or basketball’s PER metrics, puts a